Belly fat, not BMI, is a stronger heart failure predictor, especially in normal-weight individuals, a new study finds.

A new study presented at the American Heart Association’s 2026 scientific meeting finds that belly fat, especially visceral fat, is a stronger predictor of heart failure risk than BMI, even in people with normal weight. Analyzing data from nearly 2,000 African American adults over nearly seven years, researchers linked larger waist size and waist-to-height ratio to higher heart failure risk, with inflammation accounting for about one-quarter to one-third of that connection. The findings suggest measuring waist circumference and inflammation could improve early risk detection, especially for those with "normal-weight obesity," and support including abdominal fat assessments in routine preventive care.