A U.S.-Iran war erupted on Feb. 28, 2026, disrupting shipping and raising costs, but strong global demand may offset impacts on Australian beef exports.

A U.S.-Iran war began on February 28, 2026, disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and raising concerns over Australian beef export margins. Freight insurance costs have surged, and supply chain uncertainty has emerged, though strong demand in China, the Middle East, and other regions is expected to absorb exports, with China’s 2026 low-tariff beef quota likely reached by April or May. While the immediate impact on the cattle industry is limited, prolonged conflict could increase fuel and transport costs, prompting producers to shorten supply chains. No live exports are being sent into the conflict zone. The full economic effect depends on the war’s duration and the development of alternative shipping routes.