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flag Lithuania warns Russia is expanding military presence near NATO, risking a Baltic conflict within 1–2 years if Ukraine ceasefire occurs.

flag Lithuania's intelligence warns Russia is expanding its military presence near NATO borders despite ongoing war in Ukraine, with potential for a limited Baltic conflict within one to two years if sanctions lift and a ceasefire occurs, or a larger NATO war in six to ten years. flag Though Russia struggles to replace weapons and relies on China for some high-tech components, its defense industry has scaled up, especially in drones, and plans post-war modernization. flag Units remain undermanned, but new divisions are forming, particularly in Kaliningrad, where electronic warfare poses risks. flag Baltic nations remain alert, and NATO reaffirms its regional defense commitments.

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