Iran's instability may increase Channel crossings, but UK policy changes complicate refugee outcomes.

Experts say it’s too early to determine how the Middle East conflict, including U.S., Israeli, and Iranian strikes, will affect Channel crossings. Iran was the third most common nationality among asylum seekers in 2024, with about 26,000 Iranians arriving—17% of all crossings—and a high approval rate. While unrest in Iran could drive more to flee, instability may also have mixed effects. Most Iranians don’t go to the UK, but around 114,000 Iranian-born people live there. The UK is now reviewing refugee status every 30 months, requiring those from safe countries to return. Over 2,200 migrants have crossed the Channel in 2026, including recent attempts in Gravelines, France.