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Mid-decade redistricting, driven by President Trump, has made most 2026 House races uncompetitive, concentrating power in primaries with limited voter participation.
Fewer congressional races are expected to be competitive in the 2026 election, with experts citing mid-decade redistricting—largely driven by President Trump’s efforts—as a key factor.
Redrawing district lines in states like Texas, California, and Florida has reduced the number of seats where voters can meaningfully influence outcomes, leaving fewer than 10% of House seats truly competitive.
Most races are now decided in primaries, where participation is low and voters tend to be older, whiter, wealthier, and more ideologically extreme.
In 2024, just 7% of voters elected 87% of House seats, highlighting a growing imbalance in electoral influence.
Efforts to expand primary access to independents or adopt nonpartisan primaries in several states failed, leaving partisan gerrymandering unchecked and contributing to more polarized and less accountable representation.
La redistribución de distrito a mediados de la década, impulsada por el presidente Trump, ha hecho que la mayoría de las carreras de la Cámara de Representantes de 2026 no sean competitivas, concentrando el poder en las primarias con una participación limitada de los votantes.