Rio Tinto's 2025 earnings flat at $10.87B, below forecasts, due to lower iron ore prices and higher costs, despite strong copper performance.

Rio Tinto reported flat underlying earnings of $10.87 billion for 2025, slightly below the $11.03 billion consensus, as weaker iron ore prices and rising costs offset stronger copper performance. Copper output rose 11% and prices jumped 17%, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi mine, while iron ore costs increased $0.50 per tonne, with 2026 forecasts at $23.50–$25.00 per tonne. The company maintained a 60% dividend payout ratio, declaring a $2.54 per share final dividend. Despite a failed merger with Glencore, Rio Tinto’s shares rose 38% in a year, supported by surging copper, gold, and uranium prices. BHP’s copper earnings now surpass iron ore, reflecting broader industry shifts toward clean energy and AI demand.