Guyana’s oil output surged to 875,000 bpd in 2025, but revenues fell to $2.4B due to low prices and a profit-sharing structure favoring ExxonMobil.

Guyana's oil production hit 875,000 barrels per day in 2025, yet oil revenues fell to $2.4 billion due to lower global prices averaging $69 per barrel. Under the 2016 Production Sharing Agreement, Guyana’s effective share remains capped near 12.5% because ExxonMobil recoups up to 75% of costs before profit sharing, limiting government gains despite rising output. The Natural Resource Fund, now worth $3.5 billion, could generate significant long-term dividends and budget support if managed like Alaska’s model, but current spending risks inflation and eroding purchasing power. Experts warn that without ring-fencing costs, issuing bonds, and shifting to productive investments, oil wealth may fuel short-term growth at the expense of lasting prosperity.