Global trade grew 2% in 2026, slowed by U.S. import shifts and tariffs, amid geopolitical tensions and AI-driven growth.

Global trade growth slowed to an estimated 2% in 2026, down from 3.8% in 2025, due to U.S. import pullbacks after front-loading and ongoing tariff uncertainty, particularly under Section 232. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain diversification efforts continue to reshape flows, with increased nearshoring and reshoring to the U.S. and Europe. Competition for critical minerals is driving efforts to reduce reliance on China, while new trade agreements involving the EU, India, the UK, and emerging markets aim to offset protectionism. Artificial intelligence is emerging as a key growth driver, boosting trade in AI-related goods and digital services, though risks remain if investment declines.