Vietnam’s new leader aims to create 20 global private firms by 2030, but state dominance and policy shifts hinder progress.

Vietnam’s new leader, To Lam, is pushing an ambitious economic plan to lift the country out of the middle-income trap by creating 20 globally competitive private firms by 2030, inspired by South Korea’s chaebol model. Despite rapid growth through export-led manufacturing and foreign investment, Vietnam remains stuck adding little value beyond labor, with state-owned enterprises still dominating the economy and receiving preferential treatment. A recent policy shift elevates SOEs as “leading geese,” contradicting earlier promises to boost private firms. While tech company FPT shows promise, it remains small compared to massive, politically connected conglomerates like Vingroup, whose electric vehicle venture Vinfast has suffered massive losses and failed to gain international traction. The plan faces headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty and risks entrenching rent-seeking over innovation, threatening small businesses and long-term growth.