Polls project major Labour losses in 2026 UK elections, risking a fragmented Parliament and renewed devolution debates in Scotland and Wales.

Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership faces a major challenge as polling expert Lord Robert Hayward predicts significant Labour losses in May 2026 elections across England, Scotland, and Wales. In England, Labour may lose ground in London and major cities to Reform UK, the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and pro-Gaza Independent candidates, with possible Conservative gains in London. In Scotland, Labour is expected to suffer a “battering” as the SNP, Greens, and Reform UK advance, potentially reigniting independence referendum calls. In Wales, electoral reforms and a lower voting age could boost Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, fueling devolution demands. No party is expected to dominate, resulting in a fragmented outcome with lasting constitutional implications, particularly in Scotland and Wales.