SAF production is rising but remains minimal, with high costs and strict EU/UK rules threatening airline targets.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is growing but slowing, with 1.9 million tonnes expected in 2025—double 2024 levels but only 0.6% of global jet fuel use. Growth is projected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, covering just 0.8% of demand. SAF costs two to five times more than conventional fuel, adding $3.6 billion in extra costs for airlines in 2025. IATA blames poorly designed EU and UK mandates for inflating prices, distorting markets, and limiting supply despite high demand. These policies have led to significant price spikes and supply uncertainties, prompting airlines to reconsider 2030 SAF targets. With upcoming e-SAF mandates in 2028 (UK) and 2030 (EU), IATA warns that without effective incentives, compliance costs could hit €29 billion by 2032.