Wheat prices rose then fell in Nov 2025 as China purchase hopes faded despite trade talks.

CBOT wheat futures surged to $313 per tonne in early November 2025 on hopes China would boost purchases amid U.S.-China trade talks, but retreated to $299 as initial U.S. sales to China fell short of expectations. Market volatility reflects tight global wheat supplies, with stocks-to-use ratios forecast to remain historically low by May 2026 despite strong production in major exporting regions. In Australia, prices rose $15–20 per tonne in the northeast due to buyer demand and cautious grower selling, though rapid sales have caused temporary drops. Growers’ strategic pricing decisions could influence both domestic and global market values.