Record tanker orders in 2025, driven by strong rates and tight supply, raise fears of future oversupply.

Strong freight rates in 2025 have driven a surge in tanker orders, with the global orderbook now at 15–16% of the existing fleet—above historical averages—fueled by tight supply, resilient oil demand (especially from China), sanctions enforcement, and high cash flows. Orders for VLCCs, Aframax, LR2, and Suezmax vessels rose sharply, particularly after 2022, though 2025 ordering has slowed slightly. Despite installment payment plans reducing upfront risk, concerns grow over potential oversupply if long-term oil demand growth remains limited, warning of future market downturns amid the sector’s cyclical nature.