China resumes buying U.S. soybeans under a new deal, but recovery remains uncertain.

China has resumed buying some U.S. Midwest soybeans under a new trade agreement committing to 25 million metric tons annually over three years, offering limited relief to farmers. However, expanded domestic crushing capacity in Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and North Dakota cannot fully offset the loss of China’s historic demand, which once accounted for half of U.S. exports. Record U.S. yields and strong Brazilian supply, combined with lower prices, have made Brazilian beans more competitive, reducing China’s incentive to buy more American soy. Many Midwest farmers are storing their crops in hopes of better prices, but limited storage and rising costs are cutting profits. Experts remain skeptical about a full recovery in U.S. exports, especially if trade tensions resurface.