A global oil surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day is projected for 2026, driven by rising Middle East and Americas output and China’s expanding stockpiles.

The International Energy Agency warns a global oil surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day could emerge by 2026, driven by rising output from the Middle East and Americas. Global inventories hit a four-year high of 7.9 billion barrels in 2025, with China’s stockpiles surging over 30% above 2019 levels due to new storage mandates. Despite a recent decline in China’s crude surplus to 570,000 barrels per day in October, imports remain high, supported by increased refining and discounted Russian and Iranian oil. China plans to add 169 million barrels of storage capacity in two years, reinforcing strategic reserves amid geopolitical risks. While global prices remain stable, the IEA says the supply-demand imbalance cannot be sustained, signaling potential future corrections. China’s stockpiling helps support prices and could buffer markets against future shocks.