Reform UK leads in Caerphilly by-election, challenging Labour's long dominance in Wales.

A new poll projects Reform UK leading the Caerphilly by-election with 42%, followed by Plaid Cymru at 38%, and Labour at 12%, signaling a major shift in the traditionally Labour-held seat. The results, based on a small sample of 501 residents, reflect Labour’s steep decline in Wales, where its national support has dropped to around 14%. The by-election, triggered by the death of Labour’s Hefin David, will fill a Senedd vacancy until the 2026 election. Six party leaders debated key issues, including NHS funding, public services, and immigration, with candidates from all parties emphasizing local concerns and contrasting policy approaches.