Pacific growth forecast at 4.1% in 2025, slowing to 3.4% in 2026 due to U.S. tariffs and climate impacts.

The Asian Development Bank forecasts Pacific economies will grow 4.1% in 2025, up from 3.9% earlier, driven by strong mineral and gas output in Papua New Guinea, especially gold from major mines. Growth is expected to slow to 3.4% in 2026 due to indirect impacts from U.S. tariffs, though direct trade effects are limited. Remittances, rising 11.5% in Fiji, remain resilient as most Pacific workers send money to Australia and New Zealand. Challenges include declining tourism in Samoa, climate-related agriculture and fishing losses, and infrastructure delays in Vanuatu.