Global growth forecast rises to 3.2% in 2025 despite high U.S. tariffs, but risks loom for 2026.

Global economic growth is projected at 3.2% in 2025, up from June’s forecast of 2.9%, due to stronger-than-expected performance in major economies despite U.S. tariffs reaching 19.5%, the highest since the Great Depression. Companies absorbed initial tariff impacts through reduced margins and inventory stockpiling, supporting resilience in the U.S., China, and the euro zone. The U.S. economy is forecast to grow 1.8% in 2025, driven by AI investment and fiscal support, before slowing to 1.5% in 2026. China’s growth is expected at 4.9% in 2025, easing to 4.4% in 2026, while the euro zone and Japan are projected at 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. The OECD warns that as inventory buffers deplete and tariffs remain, trade and investment growth could weaken, with global growth expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 amid ongoing policy uncertainty.