Goldman Sachs predicts S&P 500 annualized return of 3% in the next decade, below the long-term average and 72% chance of underperforming Treasury bonds.

Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant decline in S&P 500 returns over the next decade, predicting an annualized return of just 3%, down from 13% in the last decade and below the long-term average of 11%. This projection highlights a 72% chance of underperforming Treasury bonds and a 33% likelihood of lagging behind inflation. The concentration of returns among the largest tech stocks is a key factor in this outlook, prompting investors to adjust their expectations.

October 21, 2024
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