UBS raises US recession likelihood to 25% due to weaker job growth and higher unemployment.
UBS Global Wealth Management raises US recession likelihood to 25% from 20%, citing weaker job growth and July's unemployment figures. The firm still expects a soft landing, with consumer spending to drive economic growth. Unemployment rose to 4.3% in July, increasing concerns for a deteriorating labor market. This has led to heightened expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the September Fed meeting.
August 27, 2024
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