AUT Prof. Tim Maloney's UR-Now model predicts New Zealand's July unemployment rate at 4.8%, based on welfare benefits and job vacancies.
Auckland University of Technology (AUT) Prof. Tim Maloney's Unemployment Rate-Nowcast (UR-Now) model predicts New Zealand's July unemployment rate may have reached 4.8%, based on increasing social welfare benefits recipients and declining job vacancies. The official rate, delayed by 4 months, may be advanced-indicated by UR-Now updates in the next two months, potentially showing further labor market weakening. The New Zealand Reserve Bank forecasts a weakening labor market with a 5.4% unemployment rate within a year.
August 18, 2024
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