Goldman Sachs lowers US recession probability to 20% due to positive retail sales and jobless claims data.

Goldman Sachs economists lowered the US recession probability in the next year from 25% to 20% based on positive retail sales and jobless claims data. They forecast a "reasonably good" August jobs report could reduce the risk to 15%. Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in their September meeting, but a disappointing jobs report may prompt a 50 basis point cut.

August 17, 2024
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