IMF predicts 5% GDP growth in China in 2024, 4.5% in 2025, recommending fiscal support and structural reforms.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that China's GDP will grow by 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, driven by strong public investment and private consumption recovery. The IMF recommends that Chinese authorities provide macroeconomic support to boost domestic demand, including greater fiscal support for households, looser monetary policy, and a more flexible exchange rate. The IMF also advises increasing central government funding to protect homebuyers of unfinished pre-sold housing, which would pave the way for nonviable developers' exit. Despite challenges such as an aging population and slowing productivity growth, the IMF believes that higher and more resilient growth is possible with comprehensive market-based structural reforms and pension reforms.